Black Friday for Collectors 2026: Model Kits, Blind Boxes, and Figures Without Overpaying

Black Friday works differently when the thing you want was made in a fixed run. Limited pre-orders, current blind box waves and convention releases rarely get cheaper in late November, while older waves, regular Funko Pops, whole sets and in-stock model kits are where the 2025 discounts showed up.

This guide is for teen and adult collectors of Blokees, Bandai, Kotobukiya, Yolopark, Funko, POP MART and Kidrobot. We checked every brand page and price in it on Oct 27, 2026, and we will update it as retailers publish their 2026 ads. Thanksgiving falls on Thu Nov 26, 2026, Black Friday on Fri Nov 27 and Cyber Monday on Mon Nov 30. Prices on ToyNoble product pages are list prices when we checked in October 2026, not sale prices.

How is Black Friday different for collectors?

A mass-market toy is restocked until demand dies, so a retailer can cut its price and reorder. A collector item is usually made once, and when a run sells out the price moves the other way, on resale sites rather than in stores. Four patterns held across the brands we follow in 2025:

• Limited runs don’t discount. P-Bandai pre-orders, Kidrobot’s weekly drops and Funko’s convention releases sold on their own terms.
• Current blind box waves rarely discount, older stock does. Blokees’ store showed no sale banner on Oct 27, 2026, but Walmart cleared a Blokees Classic Class kit to $5 in November 2025.
• Brand stores run their own events. Kidrobot ran Friday drops and a Monday vault through December 2025, POP MART ran daily coupons, and Funko marked sale pricing for Fan Rewards members.
• Sell-outs push prices up, then restocks pull them down. A $168 Labubu six-pack averaged $268 on resale in June 2025; by October 2025 the dolls were $39 at Walmart.

If you collect toys for adults and collectors, sort your wish list into two piles: things that will still exist in December, and things that won’t.

Bottom line: Black Friday is a stock event for collectors, not just a price event. Decide what can wait before the ads land.

What did collector brands do on Black Friday 2025?

Here is what we could source from pages we opened on Oct 27, 2026. Every figure is from 2025 unless marked, and none of it is a promise for 2026.

The real markdowns came from mass retailers clearing older stock; the brand stores ran events about access, not price. We found no 2025 Black Friday page for USA Gundam Store or P-Bandai US.

Bottom line: In 2025, “Black Friday” for collectors meant clearance at Walmart, coupons at POP MART and timed drops at Kidrobot. Plan for the same shapes, not the same numbers.

What are Blokees’ published odds, and what does a whole set save?

Galaxy Version singles ship in a display case of nine boxes; the whole set is the same nine boxes.

Blokees prints the odds on each product page. On Oct 27, 2026 the Galaxy Version 01 page listed eight regular figures at 1/9 each, Optimus Prime at 1/12 and the chase at 1/36, and explained the numbers this way:

“For example: 1/36 means that for every 36 Transformers produced, 1 is a chase model kit.”

Blokees, Galaxy Version 01 product page

The same page says buying singles “may result in receiving duplicate model kits,” that a complete set has no duplicates, and that opened surprise products “cannot be returned or exchanged.” A discount on a single box doesn’t change the odds inside it.

Odds and prices are from Blokees’ Galaxy 01, Shining 01 and Defender 01 pages on Oct 27, 2026, and match ToyNoble’s data.

Here is our own math, and it is ours, not Blokees’. If all nine Galaxy regulars were equally likely and you bought singles until you had every one, the average run is about 25.5 boxes, or roughly $229 at $8.99 each. For six Shining figures the same method gives about 14.7 boxes, around $191.

We ignored the chase and Optimus Prime’s slightly lower share to keep it simple. Against $80.90 and $77.90 for the whole sets, that is the discount that matters, and it exists every day of the year. We go deeper on the lines in our Blokees blind box guide and on cross-maker costs in blind box collecting on a budget.

Blind box · 10+

Blokees Transformers Galaxy Version 11 The Lost Light

Best for: IDW Lost Light comic fans 10 and up

Researched

$8.99

Blind box · 10+

Blokees Transformers Shining Version 05 Eternal Rivalry

Best for: 1986 movie fans who like light-up figures

Researched

$12.99

Blind box set · 8+

Blokees Transformers Defender Version 08 Battle Stars

Best for: Fans of Tarn, Windblade, Arcee and Sky Garry

Researched

$35.88

Bottom line: Buy the whole set if you want the lineup, and treat any single-box discount as a cheaper lottery ticket, not a cheaper set.

Which model kits drop on Black Friday, and which never do?

A $65 Master Grade like the MG Destiny is the kind of regular-release kit specialty stores do mark down; P-Bandai pre-orders are not.

Bandai sells two kinds of kits. Regular releases go to every hobby store and get reprinted. P-Bandai items are pre-order, limited-run releases sold through Bandai’s own P-Bandai store, and ToyNoble’s reviews of the RG RX-78-2 Ver.2.0 and MG Destiny Gundam note that the store accepts no exchanges or returns. We found no sale or Black Friday page on p-bandai.com/us on Oct 27, 2026, and its product pages would not render for us, so treat a P-Bandai pre-order as a buy-now-or-miss-it decision.

Regular kits are different. USA Gundam Store’s Sale Items and Todays Deals collections on Oct 27, 2026 held eight items at $2 to $25 off, plus an Item of the Day on its homepage, which is the everyday shape of Gunpla discounting. BigBadToyStore’s Black Friday Week newsletter on Nov 26, 2025 named Bandai model kits, so specialty stores do fold regular kits into the week.

“Wait” means a markdown is plausible, not promised. “Buy” means stock risk outweighs a possible discount. For Blokees’ display kits, see Classic Class vs Champion Class vs Action Edition.

Model kit · 8+

Bandai HGUC 1/144 MS-06 Zaku II (Revive) #241

Best for: New Gunpla builders who want a classic

Researched

$20.99

Model kit · 15+

Bandai MG 1/100 Destiny Gundam

Best for: Teens moving up to their first Master Grade

Researched

$65

Model kit · 15+

Kotobukiya Frame Arms Girl Shadow Tiger FG027

Best for: Frame Arms Girl fans and customizers

Researched

$67.99

Bottom line: Regular Bandai, Kotobukiya reprints and Yolopark figures can wait for the week. P-Bandai pre-orders, clear variants and anything already sold out should not.

What do Funko, POP MART and Kidrobot do in November?

A POP MART Hirono figure; in November 2025 the brand ran coupons and bundles rather than cutting single-box prices on new series.

Funko

Funko’s pattern is member pricing and multi-buys. On Oct 27, 2026 its homepage showed a VIP Halloween Sale for Fan Rewards members, multi-buy deals such as 2 for $80 and 3 for $39.99, and free shipping on orders of $65 or more. Its August 2025 sitewide sale ran up to 70% off select items but excluded Pop! Yourself figures, pre-orders and Limited Edition items, and we would expect the same exclusions in any holiday sale.

Convention releases are the other half. Funko’s own NYCC 2025 post said a selection of the show’s releases would be sold online and at shared retail partners, and that booth visitors were not assured a purchase. Those pieces don’t go on sale in November; a regular Pop! like Tanjiro Kamado #867 at $14.99 is the kind of figure multi-buys and sitewide sales touch.

POP MART

POP MART’s US homepage on Oct 27, 2026 showed Halloween events and release times, and no Black Friday messaging. In November 2025, coverage dated Nov 20 described daily coupons and two Thanksgiving mystery box sets at $40 for three blind boxes and $90, and a Nov 25 Yahoo Shopping report put select Skullpanda and Crybaby blind boxes at up to 20% off on Amazon, with one series at $30 from $33. That applied to older series, not the newest drops. ToyNoble’s DIMOO World × Pixar and Hirono Monsters’ Carnival boxes list at $19.99, so a 20% cut is $4 a box.

Kidrobot

Kidrobot’s 2025 holiday had two tracks and neither was a discount. Its Black Friday 2025 Drops page promised new pieces “every Friday from 11/14 - 12/12,” and its Cyber Monday Vault re-released sold-out pieces every Monday from Nov 17 to Dec 15 at 12 PM EST, in very limited quantities, first to complete checkout, some capped at one per customer, all sales final. If a past Dunny is on your list, the vault is your one shot. The Exquisite Corpse Dunny blind box at $12.99 and the Hokusai Great Wave Dunny at $24.99 are regular stock, where any sitewide offer would land.

Collectibles · 3+

Funko Pop! Animation Demon Slayer Tanjiro Kamado #867

Best for: Demon Slayer fans starting a Pop! shelf

Researched

$14.99

Collectibles · 15+

POP MART DIMOO WORLD × PIXAR Series Figures

Best for: Pixar fans 15 and up who collect DIMOO

Researched

$19.99

Collectibles · 15+

Kidrobot Exquisite Corpse Dunny Series Blind Box

Best for: Teens and adults who like trading blind boxes

Researched

$12.99

Bottom line: Expect Funko to price for signed-in members, POP MART to run coupons and bundles on older series, and Kidrobot to run drops and a vault with no discount at all.

Worth waiting for, or buy now?

Use this table against your own list. “Wait” means a discount is plausible based on 2025 and nothing is lost if it doesn’t come. “Buy now” means stock risk is the bigger cost.

Secondary-market timing deserves its own line. Modern Retail’s June 2025 report quoted StockX’s Drew Haines saying “We see things spike and fall very quickly,” and by October 2025 Forbes Australia reported Labubu dolls at $39 at Walmart and Target after a summer of $268 six-packs. Don’t pay a resale premium on a sell-out in November.

Bottom line: Wait on anything reprinted and in stock. Buy anything limited the day it is offered, or decide you can live without it.

How much should you budget per category?

ToyNoble list prices checked in October 2026, with the 2025 discount shapes. The last column is our judgment, not a forecast.

Blokees Galaxy singles, regular Pops and Kidrobot blind boxes all sit under $15, which is why our 2026 holiday gift guide leans on them for stockings. For big-ticket kits, the week is less about percentages and more about free shipping and a clear return policy before you commit $184 or $328.

How do you avoid overpaying or buying a fake in the rush?

Start with the “was” price. The FTC’s former-price rule, 16 CFR 233.1, says a former price only counts if it was “the actual, bona fide price at which the article was offered to the public on a regular basis,” and that a fictitious one makes the “reduced” price “probably just the seller’s regular price.” For collectibles, the right comparison is the maker’s list price, which ToyNoble shows with a checked date on every product page. A “40% off” tag on a $12.99 Shining Version box should be measured against $12.99, not a $20 figure nobody charged.

Next, count per box. POP MART’s $40-for-three Thanksgiving box in 2025 worked out to $13.33 a box against a $19.99 single, but the contents were random. A bundle is only a deal if you wanted most of what is in it.

Then check the seller. The CPSC’s August 18, 2025 warning on counterfeit Labubu dolls says the fakes can “pose a serious risk of choking and death to young children,” that “deep discounts can signal fake products,” and that buyers should look for the holographic POP MART sticker and QR code. Blokees’ pages make the same point, telling buyers to purchase through authorized channels.

Finally, read the age label before you buy for someone else. Blokees lists 8+ on Defender Version, 10+ on Galaxy and Shining Version, 12+ on Classic Class and 14+ on Champion Class and Action Edition; Bandai lists 15+ on RG, MG and PG kits; Kidrobot and POP MART list 15+ on the boxes we cover. Those are the makers’ labels, and our guide to reading toy warnings and checking recalls covers the CPSC database if you are buying for a younger fan.

Bottom line: Measure every discount against the maker’s list price, do the per-box math, buy from authorized sellers, and keep the maker’s age label in mind.

Which Black Friday plan fits your collection?

We compared maker pages, retailer sale sections and the owner reports linked above. ToyNoble’s reviews are researched, not hands-on, and each pick links to our collector reviews so you can read the owner notes first.

The Blokees completist

Buy the whole sets you want now, since set pricing didn’t move on the brand store in 2025, and put the Yearly Version Dinobot Desertion at $89.99 and the Defender Version 2026 Advent Calendar at $79.99 on restock alerts, because the calendar was already sold out on Oct 27, 2026. Watch Walmart and Target for older Classic Class kits like Classic Class 09 Optimus Prime and Classic Class 11 Optimus Prime, both $19.99, where the only 2025 clearance we found happened.

The Gunpla builder on a budget

Hold your regular-release list for the week. A HG Gundam Aerial at $17.99 or MGSD Gundam Aerial at $50.99 is reprinted and stocked, so a markdown or a free-shipping threshold is plausible and nothing is lost if it never comes.

The display collector

If your target is a clear variant, a Kotobukiya run or a P-Bandai pre-order, buy at release and spend Black Friday on the shelf, the case and the lighting instead. Our display guide covers dust, UV and shelf depth for kits from the Danboard at $34.99 up to the PG Unicorn at $328.

The Pop! and designer-toy fan

Join Funko’s Fan Rewards before the week, because its VIP pricing is marked for members, and plan around multi-buys on regular figures. For Kidrobot, pick the one vault piece you would regret missing and set a Monday alarm. For POP MART, wait for a coupon and apply it to a whole series.

The gift buyer for a teen collector

Blind boxes make poor surprise gifts for someone who already collects, because repeats are likely. Pick a fixed item: a Champion Class Darth Vader at $19.99, a Marvel Rivals Venom at $27.99, an Action Edition 01 G1 Optimus Prime at $39.99 or the Legend Edition Kurama at $49.99.

Bottom line: Completists and display collectors should buy now. Budget builders and Pop! fans should wait, sign in and do the per-box math when the ads land.

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